This week, I've got bad news and good news. I'll start with the bad news: it probably won't surprise you, but McCain is a very bad candidate. In interview after interview, he won't actually list any of his policy initiatives. The only thing he keeps repeating is "tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts!" Now, this is actually a good campaign strategy, since everyone knows that no president who has cut taxes has ever lost re-election. Ever. It's a big reason Bush got re-elected, after all.

Of course, Bush's tax cuts were an exercise in deception. The Congress "scores" tax cuts by comparing projected government revenue with and without the tax cuts over a 10-year period. Bush cleverly had his tax cuts set to expire after nine years, thus artificially making them appear more responsible fiscally. Of course, they were completely and utterly irresponsible, and they should expire as planned.

McCain, when proposing his tax cut plan, wants it "scored" relative to the current law, meaning compared to Bush's tax cuts. Well, then McCain's plan doesn't look so bad. However, when compared against what the law would be after Bush's tax cuts expires, McCain's plan (which includes huge corporate tax breaks) will lose the Federal government $5 trillion over ten years. That kind of budget shortfall would require a complete disembowelment of the federal government. Paul Krugman has a great (and devastating) write-up of McCain's plan, in which he includes this fantastic line: "a look at what Mr. McCain says about taxes shows the same combination of irresponsibility and double-talk that, back in 2000, foreshadowed the character of the Bush administration."

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/opinion/28krugman.html

OK, so what's the good news? McCain is going to have to be extremely lucky, _extremely_ lucky, to win in November. Sure, right now it doesn't look very good for the Democrats, at each others' throats and seemingly on a long, never-ending death march. But step back and take a look at the numbers -- Democrats have registered and voted in primaries around the country in absolutely unprecedented numbers. In Pennsylvania, won by Democrats in 2000 and 2004 by only a couple hundred thousand votes, there are now (because of the last six weeks) over a MILLION more registered Democrats than Republicans.

There's more -- speaking of Pennsylvania, 220,000 Republicans, 27% of the primary voters, voted against McCain. Ron Paul got 16% of the vote, and Huckabee got the rest. For the record, Clinton beat Obama by less that that margin. I think that's pretty telling. McCain is desperately pandering to any Republican who will listen, making more irresponsible promises than ever.

In my opinion, any head-to-head polls between McCain and either Democratic candidate are complete irrelevant, bogus, and nonsense. Well, of _course_ he looks like he's almost tied -- his opponents are splitting the vote! I think that the first head-to-head poll that will actually be worth anything will be a week or two _after_ the Democratic convention. The candidate will be set, and at least a week needs to go by to ride the wave of the convention bump. What it may come down to is how the loser acts -- will they support the candidate, or will they continue to divide the party? That's the only way McCain can win, and even then he isn't guaranteed anything.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/opinion/27rich.html

The Democrats are in the enviable position of having two incredibly strong candidates, both of whom are more than capable of beating McCain in a general election, and both of whom will have vastly more money than McCain. Obama represents change and hope and everything new, while Clinton's experience makes her possibly the most qualified presidential candidate this country has seen in a long, long time. Yeah, we all want the fight to end, and rest assured that it will. It used to be that candidates weren't chosen until the convention -- in a way, this is just old-school. It's amazing to watch, and it's really a trial-by-fire for whoever wins. Mathematically, that looks like it will be Obama -- perhaps he'll end up thanking Clinton for putting him through the wringer early. McCain, in contrast, was relatively untouched during his primary campaign (other than exposing his weakness as a candidate for the right-wing of his own party), and he will be in the unfortunate posit!
ion of being outspent at least 2-to-1 by whoever wins the Democratic nomination. He's gonna get hit by a bus as soon as the Democrats choose a winner and unite behind that winner.

Personally, I'm gonna unite behind a BEER tomorrow night at Drinking Liberally -- come on down and join us!

--Rafi

What: Drinking Liberally
When: Tuesday, April 29, 7:15ish
Where: Publick House
2307 Devine Street
Columbia, SC 29205
(803)256-2207 for directions

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